By Peter Vankevich
Update Sunday 8:30 am: A briefing by NWS Sunday (Aug. 17) morning said expected wave heights and wind speeds have increased with tropical storm force gusts possible along the Outer Banks Wednesday night into Thursday. Erin’s track has shifted slightly west over the past 24 hours. Large, long-period ocean swells from Erin are forecast to reach the North Carolina coast beginning Tuesday, peaking Wednesday into Thursday, and lingering into late week.
Early Sunday morning, sustained winds had dropped to 125 mph, making it a Category 3 storm, located about 140 miles (225 kilometers) north of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The forecast track, the core of Erin, is expected to pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Travelers on the Outer Banks should be aware of possible disruptions next week caused by Hurricane Erin as it intensified into a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale overnight, with sustained winds of 160 miles an hour.
Erin grew from a tropical storm to Category 5 in just under 30 hours, and from a Category 3 to a Category 5 in just under six hours. It is the first Category 5 hurricane since Milton and Beryl in 2024 and one of the most rapidly intensifying storms in Atlantic history.
Currently located north of the Northern Leeward Islands, Erin is expected to bring rain, gusty winds and high surf to the Caribbean this weekend before pivoting northward and passing between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Although this mega storm will be well offshore of the Outer Banks as it heads north, the expected huge swells will, nevertheless, be significant on the Outer Banks, including coastal flooding, life-threatening rip currents, beach erosion and extremely dangerous surf.
People planning to travel during the week should be very aware that these impacts could cause disruptions along NC 12 from Ocracoke all the way up to Dare and Currituck counties.
Another threat from this major hurricane is to the sea turtle nests. As of Friday, Aug. 13, out of the 205 reported nests in the Cape Hatteras National Seashore, Bodie, Hatteras and Ocracoke islands, 119 nests were still incubating along with 17 more on Pea Island, according to Seaturtle.org and which was updated Saturday morning.
Beach erosion where the nests are located will cause their destruction as sea turtle nests are not able to survive prolonged exposure to both standing sea and fresh water due to overwash and flooding.
Typically, if sea turtle nests are exposed to standing water for more than 24 to 48 hours, the chances of hatchling survival decrease significantly. To protect sea turtle nests from flooding, conservation efforts often include relocating nests or creating barriers in areas prone to flooding.
For the latest track, please visit: www.hurricanes.gov.
