From the National Weather Service out of Newport/Morehead City
Tropical activity in the Atlantic is ramping up again, but it is oo soon to known the exact impacts we could see from a pair of developing systems, and a highly unusual interaction between the two may occur that is making it more difficult to forecast what happens over the next week.
The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on Wednesday for Tropical Storm Humberto, which formed earlier this evening in the Atlantic basin. AL94 has not yet developed into a defined system but is forecast to sometime this weekend near the Bahamas.
Key Messages
· Higher than usual uncertainty exists over the timing, track, and intensity of each system. The interactions between these two systems will be highly complex and dependent on how each system behaves. Interactions like this in the Atlantic basin have little precedent – we don’t have an appreciable historical record to draw reference to.
· Timing of any potential landfall is highly variable, ranging from as early as this Sunday to as late as next Thursday – if landfall occurs at all.
· We are most confident in strong swell and an elevated rip current risk for the beaches of North Carolina starting later this week.
Social media accounts may show dramatic model forecasts during this event. Please follow official sources for weather information (like our briefings and the National Hurricane Center) and Beware the Share.
We will provide future updates as confidence increases. If you have any questions or concerns, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us.
NOAA – National Weather Service
Newport/Morehead City, NC Weather Forecast Offi
