From Dare County Emergency Management
TD11 has become Tropical Storm Joaquin. Current forecast track is depicted in the above image. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates confidence in the details of that track forecast–especially beyond 48 hours–is extremely low.
Environmental conditions are making intensity forecasting a challenge as well.
The NHC indicates “there is a lot of spread in the intensity guidance as well” and with the uncertainty in Joaquin’s structure and track, they state the 5 a.m.forecast “remains conservative.”
That conservative forecast has TS Joaquin turning to the north early Thursday morning and then tracking off our coast as a tropical storm later this week into the weekend. At this time we should anticipate high surf conditions to continue for the near term along with other weather impacts like heavy rain and gusting winds that will come with a storm tracking off the coast.
If you need additional info please visit the Hurricane Center here for what Joaquin is doing and our local National Weather Service office for the local impacts.